Silicon Valley Learns Human Judgment Is the Hardest Thing to Predict
SANTA CLARA, California – Nvidia, one of the world’s most influential artificial intelligence companies, has launched an independent investigation into reports that its chief executive, Jensen Huang, may have been the target of a foreign intelligence operation.
According to CBS News’ reporting, a committee of independent directors, assisted by outside counsel, will oversee the review, which follows reports concerning Huang’s close personal relationship with a business executive whom U.S. officials reportedly believe was connected to Chinese intelligence. The company’s board statement says it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised, and that Huang supports the review.
The development has created an extraordinary challenge for the technology industry. Apparently, companies can manufacture chips capable of processing astonishing quantities of information without manufacturing any guarantee against astonishingly complicated personal situations.
Could AI Judgment Software Help Corporate Executives?
A Silicon Valley engineer, who asked not to be named because the suggestion was made in a hallway, reportedly proposed installing an advanced judgment-assistance system in every executive office. The software would evaluate decisions before executives made them. Potentially dangerous financial decisions would trigger a warning. Questionable security practices would generate an alert. Complicated personal relationships would automatically activate a large red light and notify the corporate legal department.
A human resources consultant warned that such a system might discourage employees from making independent decisions.
The engineer replied that this was precisely the point.
Why Powerful Chips Can’t Predict Executive Judgment
Nvidia’s technology supports demanding AI workloads across industries. Its products help researchers process enormous datasets, develop sophisticated models and accelerate scientific computation. But calculating probabilities and exercising sound personal judgment are not the same thing.
A computer scientist compared the distinction to automobile technology. A modern vehicle can warn drivers about lane departures, identify obstacles and calculate efficient routes. It cannot guarantee that the person behind the wheel won’t do something regrettable.
Technology, in other words, has never completely eliminated human nature.
A business school study of executive decision-making found that 87 percent of decisions later requiring an emergency board meeting were described by the decision-maker, at the time, as “fine.”
The scientist suggested that future executive training programs begin with a simple principle.
“If your decision might require an emergency meeting of the board of directors, reconsider it.”
How Corporate Boards Handle an Executive Investigation
Nvidia’s board has initiated an independent investigation, with outside counsel assisting in the review. That is an appropriate corporate response to potentially serious concerns involving security, governance and public trust. The investigation does not itself establish that company information was compromised or that wrongdoing occurred. The FBI’s public page on counterintelligence and espionage describes the threats facing American companies in plain language, and companies are encouraged to read it before an emergency rather than during one.
Nevertheless, technology investors are reminded that even sophisticated companies face ordinary human risks.
A shareholder proposed adding a new category to quarterly earnings reports. Alongside revenue, operating margins and product forecasts, companies would disclose their Executive Common Sense Index. The index would measure how frequently senior management avoided situations requiring explanations from lawyers.
Corporate attorneys immediately opposed the proposal. A memo from the legal department of an unnamed Silicon Valley firm, shared by a person who has since stopped answering email, argued that the index “threatens a core revenue stream.” It was the first memo anyone could remember that was entirely accurate.
Silicon Valley Requests a Software Update
Technology companies invest enormous resources in cybersecurity, hardware protection and secure communications. These safeguards matter. But organizational security also depends on human behavior, accountability and effective governance.
An analyst suggested that future AI systems could provide better decision support. Another cautioned that people must still choose whether to follow the advice. The first analyst considered this problem.
“Can we automate that part too?”
The second shook his head.
“Not without replacing the executives.”
Investors reportedly asked whether that feature would be available in the next software release. For once, Silicon Valley had no confident answer.
An analyst in Santa Clara noted that Nvidia can tell you how many chips will ship next quarter to the nearest thousand, yet its board still needs a report written by lawyers to find out what happened on an ordinary Tuesday. He called it the last frontier of computing.
Five Observations on Nvidia and Human Judgment
- They build the most powerful chips on earth and they still have to call in outside counsel. Turns out nobody has figured out how to put judgment on a circuit board. Believe me, they’ve tried. It keeps coming out as a heat sink.
- The engineer wants a big red light in every executive office. Complicated personal situation, the light comes on, legal gets a text. I’ve got that light at home. Mine’s called my wife and she has never missed one.
- The car beeps when you drift out of your lane. Nobody has built the beep for everything else. And if they did, we’d all turn it off, like the lane thing.
- The Executive Common Sense Index. The lawyers hated it because it cuts into billable hours. Common sense is the only product in America that’s bad for business.
- “Can we automate that part too?” “Not without replacing the executives.” The investors asked if that’s in the next release. It’s the first time I’ve seen Silicon Valley say “we’ll get back to you” and mean it.