Postal criminals reportedly stumble into the political business, only to discover that stealing democracy offers terrible resale value and an alarming amount of paperwork.
DALY CITY, CALIFORNIA | The criminal economy has encountered an unexpected commercial disappointment following reports that stolen mail from a Daly City post office may have included election ballots, raising concerns that whoever took the mail could find themselves in possession of political documents possessing enormous constitutional significance and almost no conventional street value.
What Federal Investigators Know About the San Mateo Mail Theft
Local reporting by KQED on the San Mateo County mail theft confirms that federal investigators are examining the incident. The number of ballots potentially affected remains undetermined, and officials have not established that election materials were deliberately targeted. Mail theft is a federal crime handled by the U.S. Postal Inspection Service.
This leaves the criminal community confronting a fascinating economic question.
What exactly is the black-market value of somebody else’s vote when you can’t legally use it?
The Black-Market Value of a Stolen Election Ballot
The average American thief understands the resale market for bicycles, smartphones and power tools.
Election ballots present a more complicated business model.
They can’t be deposited into a checking account.
They can’t be exchanged for airline miles.
And unlike stolen credit cards, they are unlikely to purchase a television before the bank notices something suspicious.
One retired economics professor estimated the commercial value of an election ballot at approximately the price of the envelope, minus the cost of getting caught.
“The thief faces extraordinary downside risk,” he explained. “And unless he owns a recycling plant, the merchandise has limited legitimate value.”
His calculations omitted the possibility that somebody in Washington would eventually offer the thief a consulting contract.
Campaign Economics and the Political Futures Market
The situation also exposes the curious economics of modern political campaigning.
Candidates spend enormous sums persuading citizens to fill out ballots.
Political consultants earn substantial fees analysing which citizens might vote.
Advertising companies collect millions encouraging people to participate in democracy.
Yet a completed ballot sitting in a postal container can’t simply be converted into cash.
In the private sector, that would be considered a poorly designed financial instrument.
An investment banker might explain that stealing ballots is merely an unsuccessful attempt to enter the political futures market.
The underlying asset is valuable.
The transferability is questionable.
And federal investigators have expressed an unfortunate interest in the transaction.
Mail Theft and Election Fraud Are Separate Crimes
A local philosopher offered a deeper interpretation.
“The criminal wants property. The politician wants power. The voter wants representation. And the post office wants everybody to stop asking where the mail went.”
This distinction is particularly relevant because mail theft and election fraud are separate crimes.
A thief stealing envelopes does not automatically possess the ability to cast valid votes.
California’s election procedures include voter-linked ballot records and safeguards against duplicate counting, and the Brennan Center for Justice explains how those checks keep ineligible ballots from being counted.
For the prospective criminal entrepreneur, this creates a disappointing regulatory environment.
Imagine breaking into a store, carrying away a collection of valuable-looking documents and discovering that each item comes with a government identification number and can’t legally be sold.
Even worse, the people who actually own them can request replacements. Voters can do exactly that through San Mateo County’s ballot-tracking page.
One comedian described the arrangement as “the first robbery where the victims can order another democracy.”
Why Candidates Ask for Ballots While Thieves Simply Take Them
Meanwhile, America’s campaign industry offers a striking contrast.
Political professionals are perfectly entitled to raise millions of dollars, spend most of it on advertisements everyone hates and finish the election insisting that the voters have spoken.
A mail thief, by contrast, may risk federal prosecution for an envelope containing a political preference that millions of other Americans will express for free.
The great irony is that the average candidate spends months desperately asking people for their ballots.
The thief may have acquired them without asking.
Unfortunately, this is not a recognised campaign strategy.
Protecting Every Legitimate Vote
The investigation also raises an important practical issue about prevention.
Society has spent centuries developing locks, alarms, secure transport and accountability procedures for valuable property.
Those principles do not become obsolete merely because the property happens to contain a choice between politicians.
A vote may be worth only one vote.
But that is precisely why every legitimate vote should be protected.
And while investigators continue determining what was taken, voters can track their ballots and request replacements when necessary.
The criminal justice system will presumably deal with whoever actually stole the mail, based on the evidence rather than the political assumptions of television commentators.
In the meantime, aspiring criminals should learn a basic lesson about the electoral economy.
Stealing a bank deposit may produce money.
Stealing an election ballot produces investigators, surveillance footage and an unwanted role in a national political argument.
And if you’re hoping to exchange your stolen ballots for cash at the bank, the teller has some disappointing news.
“Sir, these are votes.”
“Are they worth anything?”
“Only if politicians actually keep their promises.”
In that case, the thief may have stolen the least valuable currency in California.
Five Humorous Observations About Stealing Democracy for Profit
- Think about the planning. A guy puts on a hoodie, cases a post office, grabs a bin full of mail and thinks, “This is it, this is the score.” Then he opens it and it’s a stack of paper that says “please vote for the water bond.”
- You can’t sell a ballot. You can’t pawn it. You can’t even use it as a coupon. It’s the only stolen item in America worth less than the van you used to carry it.
- The economics professor says a ballot is worth the envelope minus the cost of getting caught. So it’s worth about negative four years. That’s the worst return since my cousin’s restaurant.
- Politicians spend a billion dollars begging us to fill these out. This guy just grabbed a bunch for free. He’s the only person in America who got an election mailing and didn’t throw it away.
- The teller says, “Sir, these are votes.” And the guy says, “Are they worth anything?” That’s the most honest exchange at a bank since they stopped giving out toasters.
Editorial disclaimer: The underlying Daly City mail-theft investigation, election safeguards and voter replacement procedures are drawn from published reporting and official election information. The comedic conversations, proposed committees, political exchanges and colourful characters are satirical commentary, not verified testimony or actual government policy.