Mexican Crop Losses Put $18 Toast at Risk
AUSTIN, Texas — The discovery of avocado-eating insects in Mexico has raised the possibility of a grave humanitarian emergency in the United States: Americans may have to eat breakfast without something green on it.
Mexican agricultural officials confirmed an avocado seed weevil problem that led growers to destroy up to 52 tons of fruit, Reuters reported. American consumers immediately began working through the implications for a civilization that charges $18 for toast. The restaurant industry has reportedly entered what hospitality analysts call Stage Four Guacamole Anxiety, a condition marked by nervous menu redesigns, emergency pricing meetings and customers asking whether the avocado is ethically sourced before paying six dollars to have it smashed.
Guacamole Prices: Restaurants Find a Wonderful Excuse to Raise Them
For years, American restaurants have wrestled with a hard economic problem. How do you charge customers more for something that was already overpriced?
The answer, it turns out, is a Mexican insect.
An internal memo sent to managers at a Texas restaurant group, and seen by a reporter, told locations to “update guac pricing before anyone confirms anything.” It introduced a temporary Agricultural Insect Recovery Fee of $3.75 and noted that the fee “should stay on the menu until guests stop noticing it.”
One executive at the company laid out the math for a reporter.
“An avocado used to cost us money. Now there’s a possibility that someday it might cost us more money. Naturally, we’ve already adjusted the menu.”
Asked whether its supplier had actually raised prices, management said actual increases weren’t necessary to justify anticipated increases. One economist called the arrangement speculative guacamole pricing and said he hadn’t seen anything like it outside of oil futures.
Avocado Supply Numbers: USDA Data Suggests Civilization Will Survive
The real numbers paint a less apocalyptic picture. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s latest avocado report forecasts roughly 2.8 million metric tons of Mexican avocado production and 1.31 million metric tons of exports. Fifty-two tons works out to less than two thousandths of one percent of the production forecast. There is currently no demonstrated nationwide American guacamole shortage resulting from the reported destruction.
That hasn’t stopped a brunch consultant from telling clients to prepare for the worst.
“We are approaching a situation where Americans might have to consider eating eggs by themselves.”
The consultant was subsequently escorted from a wellness conference.
What Brunch Patrons Told Pollsters
A snap poll of 600 brunch patrons, conducted outside three Austin restaurants over one Sunday morning, found that 71 percent could name the avocado’s country of origin only after being shown a picture of a taco. Sixty-four percent said they would pay more “for peace of mind.” Twenty-two percent asked what a weevil was and whether it was vegan.
Wellness Influencers Discover Nature Is Not Always Organic in a Good Way
The discovery has also created philosophical difficulties for health-conscious consumers. For years, Americans have demanded natural, organic, minimally processed food. Now they’ve learned that nature has been putting live insects inside it.
A California wellness influencer expressed profound disappointment.
“I specifically requested food that was untouched by industrial agriculture. Nobody told me that meant actual wildlife could be living in it.”
Her followers recommended switching to imported organic avocados, preferably grown somewhere that had never experienced insects. An agricultural scientist tried to explain that growing fruit outdoors necessarily involves the natural world. The explanation got three likes and 400 accusations of agricultural pessimism.
Strategic Guacamole Reserve: Guacamole Becomes a National Security Concern
Political analysts expect the issue to reach Congress eventually. Lawmakers have traditionally avoided hard agricultural questions until they can be converted into television interviews.
A proposed Emergency Strategic Guacamole Reserve would hold enough mashed avocado to protect the nation against future brunch disruptions. It would work like the country’s petroleum stockpile, except that it would spoil after lunch. A bipartisan committee would oversee distribution, with priority given to football parties, Mexican restaurants and anyone suffering emotional distress after finding the chip bowl empty.
The price tag hasn’t been set. Neither has the location of a federally approved refrigerated bunker big enough to hold 40 million tubs of dip.
Mexican Avocado Farmers Remain Unimpressed
Back in Mexico, growers were less interested in America’s emotional relationship with toast. They had lost actual produce, actual labor and actual money. Their problem was agricultural survival. America’s problem was whether the guacamole came with complimentary chips.
The difference says something about how food markets work.
In Mexico, an avocado infestation can destroy a farmer’s livelihood. In America, it can justify charging $22 for breakfast.
Five Humorous Observations on the Brunch Crisis
- Americans will pay twenty-four dollars for brunch, but the moment you tell them there’s a bug in the avocado they act like they’ve never eaten anything with a pulse.
- The restaurant raised prices before there was a shortage. That’s not business, that’s pre-crime.
- Strategic Guacamole Reserve. A national stockpile of something that turns brown if you look at it too long. We can’t keep the stuff green through a Super Bowl halftime.
- Fifty-two tons gone and everybody’s panicking like Mexico just canceled lunch. Meanwhile the guy who actually lost the avocados is out there wondering who’s paying for the shovel.
- Somebody out there is on a podcast right now explaining that the weevil is a symptom of late-stage capitalism. He’s holding a four-dollar toast when he says it.